What GOP Voters Have Told Me Since Trump’s Indictment
They’re open to an alternative to the former president, but his rivals can’t touch him.
Donald Trump is the clear GOP front-runner for 2024. This isn’t news—he has dominated most polling since the day Joe Biden was sworn in. Despite leading the GOP to a historically bad midterm, being saddled with a dismal 25 percent approval rating, and becoming the first former president to be indicted, his prospects for winning the Republican nomination are only growing stronger.
Since the indictment, Republicans—including those running against him—have rallied to Trump’s defense. His fundraising has surged. And he’s racked up endorsements. Meanwhile, his Republican opposition is floundering. Nikki Haley is apparently double-counting her fundraising. Mike Pence is getting booed by party hard-liners. Asa Hutchinson, Tim Scott, and Vivek Ramaswamy toil in also-ran obscurity. Ron DeSantis is the only candidate within hailing distance of Trump, but his campaign is sputtering.
Over the course of hundreds of focus groups I’ve conducted, a large chunk of GOP voters have made clear that they would be content with a nominee other than Trump in 2024—preferably a “Trump without the baggage”–style candidate. They like that the former president is, in their words, a “fighter.” But after eight years of Trump tweets, taunts, and tantrums, they’re open to—in many cases eager for—new alternatives. So how is Trump on pace to run away with the nomination?
For a while, DeSantis looked like a plausible contender. In my focus groups, Republican voters admired the Florida governor’s “aggressiveness,” favorably citing his decision to ship migrants to Martha’s Vineyard. Others said they liked his approach to the pandemic and approvingly quoted his unofficial campaign slogan: “Florida is where woke goes to die.”
But I’ve seen a marked change in recent weeks. Trump and his super PAC are trying to paint DeSantis as a deficit hawk hell-bent on slashing Medicare and Social Security. These kinds of attacks are aimed at tying DeSantis to the establishment in the eyes of voters—a view that’s starting to creep into the focus groups.
“As I started to learn more about Ron DeSantis and where he is on the political spectrum and how he’s voted in the past, now I’m not sure I’d vote for the man,” Sharon, a two-time Trump voter from Illinois, told me. Others called him “alienating” and said they “aren’t necessarily comfortable” with his policies.
Criticism of his culture-war crusade against Disney has come up as well. “Everything about that is why I’m not necessarily a big fan of him,” said Wesley, a Republican from Maryland. “I get the impression that he very much governs to the people on the internet more so than the people in his state.”
Colleen, a Republican from Georgia, called DeSantis’s war with Disney “a little goofy,” saying, “It’s Disney World! Leave it alone.” Informed about DeSantis’s suggestion to build a prison next to the theme park, Ruth—a Michigan Republican—exclaimed, “Why would you do that? That’s terrible.”
As the base sours on DeSantis, it’s coming home to Trump. When I convened a group of GOP voters the day after Trump’s indictment, their assessment was nearly unanimous: “It’s a complete distraction and it’s a waste of time.” “It’s being blown out of proportion.” “Just ridiculous and a terrible direction for us to go.”
We asked one group whether they had donated to Trump before the indictment. Only three out of nine had, but after the indictment, all nine said they would. None said another indictment or arrest would change their minds. And none thought Trump should drop out.
“As far as a mug shot goes, he’s going to market the hell out of that,” said Chris, a two-time Trump voter from Illinois, imagining a future arrest. “Every one of us is going to buy one of those shirts.” Most hands went up when I asked who would buy one.
In the most recent group, five out of seven participants said they would vote for Trump if the primary were held that day.
One of the peculiar pathologies of Republican-primary politics is that even Trump’s competition feels unable to criticize him. Case in point: After Trump was indicted, DeSantis called the move “un-American,” Pence called it “an outrage,” and Haley said it was “more about revenge than it is about justice.”
They are in a trap of their own making. For eight years, Republican leaders have defended Trump at every turn—from the Access Hollywood tape to “very fine people on both sides.” From the first impeachment to January 6 to the second impeachment.
They thought that by covering for Trump they were tapping into his power, but they were actually giving away their own—mortgaging themselves and their reputations to Trump’s lies and depravities. By defending him then, they have made it impossible to credibly accuse him of anything now.
This problem is compounded by the deep relationship that Trump has cultivated with Republican voters. He’s been a constant presence in their lives for eight years—or, for Apprentice fans, much longer. They defended him on Facebook and argued about him over Thanksgiving dinners. Millions of them have voted for him twice.
DeSantis, in contrast, became a national figure only about 18 months ago. Some Republicans like his anti-“woke” stunts, but the fracas with Disney shows that this will get him only so far. The shallowness of this attachment is allowing Trump to define DeSantis for a national audience before DeSantis has the chance to define himself.
“I don’t know enough about him. I would have to learn more to see where he stands on a lot of things,” Sandy, a North Dakota Republican, said of DeSantis in a recent focus group. Many others echoed this idea.
The Trump camp is gleefully filling that information vacuum. The former president has called DeSantis “a total flameout,” “highly overrated,” and “a really bad politician.” His super PAC is skewering DeSantis as a pudding-fingered entitlement-slasher and “just another career politician.” DeSantis’s response has been almost nonexistent.
Unless the Republican field coalesces around an alternative soon, Trump will almost certainly cruise to the nomination—just as he did in 2016. Today, Trump is in the pole position, and gaining. Fox and CNN lifted their shadow bans on him. And, thanks to the indictment, he’s back in his sweet spot of aggrieved victimhood.
Already, parts of the Republican establishment are resigning themselves to another Trump coronation. Although DeSantis was once their great hope, the plan now—once again—seems to be to sit back and pray that the Democrats take care of Trump for them.